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I imagine that most of you are aware of Microsoft’s Silverlight platform. The guys over at Sun have now thrown their hat into the ring with the debut of the JavaFx platform for RIAs. Adobe is in for some serious competition in the years ahead and as a developer I wonder where these trends might lead. It looks like we are heading for something akin to the browser wars. Any thoughts?
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Flash has the browser penetration. Period. Any other RIA program that needs a plugin (so anything but javascript and DHTML ) will not have many people developing things for it if not everyone has the plugin, and people will not get the plugin while no one develops much for it. It’s a catch-22. Can Flash never be overtaken? Of course it can. But even if a system came out that was far superior in every way, ate reporters and pissed oil, all while saving kittens from burning houses, it would still take many years to overtake Flash’s browser penetration, and browser penetration is everything.
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I don’t think so Microsoft’s Silverlight platform don’t have what flash have and that’s global exposure for many years, also flash has many plug- in as 3 party software .
I work as flash teacher for the matrix division trust me Silverlight is just a born baby as compare to what flash have to offer.
I think for the next 5 years or so Silverlight will see only the back dust from flash.
Flash made a huge progress develop in the last 3 years flash applications is going faster and lighter.
Flash can be work as a clean application with no 3 party help in web design/application also the animation flash division is still world leading.
So far Silverlight doesn’t show the interest that the guys in Microsoft was hoping for, and I think it will stay that way.
Stick to flash (:
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Microsoft will always have the edge by being able to preinstall silverlight with new computers but I took a look at what it takes to develop for Silverlight and I was immediately turned off.
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I think when the Flash vs. Silverlight thing comes up people forget that there isn’t anything slopping people from having both installed.
IMO , Silverlight will slowly but surely gain market share (maybe someday even reaching Flash’s market share) at which poin the average user will simply have both plug-ins installed on their system.
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... But even if a system came out that was far superior in every way, ate reporters and pissed oil, all while saving kittens from burning houses…
Classic, actually had me laughing out loud 
For your browsing pleasure:
http://riastats.com/
http://www.adobe.com/products/player_census/flashplayer/version_penetration.html
If a client ever doubts using Flash, threaten to burn their kittens, eat their favourite reporter and piss oil on them….
...then show them the above links 
